000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220248
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.5W AT 0300 UTC 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 
103W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. 
PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY 
THURSDAY...AND MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS FROM PATRICIA. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WHICH ARE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS ON PATRICIA.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N102W TO 10N110W TO 10N126W TO 
08N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 OF TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 N S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF 15N 
W OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. OLAF HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM THE 
AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS. RESIDUAL SWELL WITH SEAS TO 10 FT COVERS THE 
AREA W OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 19N134W TO 13N134W TO 07N140W. 
A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY 
OLAF OVER NW WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIOD IN 
THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS WHEN EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS IN THE GALAPAGOS AND 
MAY INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.

$$ AL