000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212101
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.5W AT 2100 UTC 
MOVING W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
60 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM OR CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT PRIOR 
TO LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PARICIA IS 
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY THURSDAY. HEAVY 
RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS FROM PATRICIA. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST AND 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND MIATCPEP5/ WTPZ35 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N105W TO 10N126W TO 09N137W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N142W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND HURRICANE OLAF IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N OF 
15N W OF 130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W. OLAF HAS SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH FROM 
THE AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE 
WESTERN WATERS. RESIDUAL SWELL WITH SEAS TO 11 FT COVER THE AREA 
W OF A LINE FROM 25N140W TO 19N134W TO 13N134W TO 07N140W. A NEW 
BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY OLAF 
OVER NW WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIOD IN 
THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS WHEN EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS IN THE GALAPAGOS AND 
MAY INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
                                                    
$$ 
AL