000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0700 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.0W AT 0900 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
WHILE NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE FROM 
06N-14N BETWEEN 95W-108W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS 
IT TURNS TOWARD THE NW...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THU. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST FORECAST AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N103W TO 11N108W TO 
11N116W TO 07N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W-120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 210 NM AND 390 NM N OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-125W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HURRICANE OLAF...CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 11.5N144W AT 0900 
UTC...CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG 
SE TO S WINDS WERE FROM 08N-14N W OF 139W WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION RELATED TO OLAF WAS FROM 09N-12N W 
OF 137W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-
25 KT TONIGHT. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0350 UTC HELPED DEFINE THE 
AREA OF 8-14 FT SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL W OF A LINE FROM 05N140W 
TO 18N130W TO 26N140W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM E 
TO W...SHRINKING TO W OF 137W BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
EARLY FRI MORNING WHEN A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL WILL MERGE WITH 
THIS SWELL OVER WATERS N OF 25N.

A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 34N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 29N135W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE 
SW UNITED STATES HAD PRODUCED FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH GENERATED NW SWELL THAT 
PROPAGATED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN WATERS. CURRENTLY...SEAS ARE IN 
THE 7-9 FT RANGE N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W-127W. THE WINDS N OF THE 
AREA ARE DIMINISHING. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT OVER 
FORECAST WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE LEADING EDGE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL TRAIN WITH PERIOD IN 
THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS 
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS WHEN EXITING AND ENTERING PORTS IN THE GALAPAGOS AND 
MAY INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
                                                    
$$ 
SCHAUER