000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED OCT 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 
95.3W AT 0300 UTC MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH 
THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST AND PUBLIC ADVISORIES 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N105W TO 12N113W TO 08N124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HURRICANE OLAF CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA. WINDS 
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS. 
TROPICAL STORM WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W OF THE AREA. WINDS TO 30 KT 
COVER THE AREA OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 
138W WITH SEAS OF 13 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 
138W RELATED TO OLAF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE 
OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS AS OLAF MOVES FURTHER FROM THE 
AREA. BY THU AFTERNOON WINDS WILL FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS. WITH 
SEAS OF 11 FT COVERING THE AREA W OF LINE FROM 26N140W TO 
20N137W TO 14N137W TO 10N140W.

A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 3N139W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 19N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES 
IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS IS PROPAGATING 
INTO NORTHEASTERN WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W WITH 
SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE. THE WINDS N OF THE AREA WILL DIMINISH 
TONIGHT AND THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT OVER FORECAST 
WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO 
THE FAR NW WATERS THU NIGHT. 
                                                    
$$ 
AL