000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 10.2N 122.1W AT 
0300 UTC MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION 
HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT IS STILL FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM FRI EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. PLEASE SEE 
LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
NINETEEN-E. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS ARE FUNNELING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 14 FT. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ALLOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAX 
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 98W FROM 08N TO 16N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF WAVE AXIS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 10N92W TO 07N104W TO 
08N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 25N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SE TO NEAR 22N119W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE IS 
HELPING TO DRIVE AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. OTHERWISE A WEAK PRESSURE 
PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
WATERS S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 124W. THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT SAT NIGHT. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL 
WAVE...GALE FORCE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WILL HELP GENERATE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA 
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS AREA WILL 
BE ONE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS 
LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEAS 
SEE THE LATEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON 
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. 

$$ 
AL