000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151542 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 10.2N 119.5W AT 1500 UTC MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION'S CLOUDS PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING INCREASING IN COVERAGE TO THE N AND NE OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 119W-121W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN A BAND IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N116W TO 13N120W TO 11N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 06N125W TO 08N125W AND FROM 08N123W TO 09N121W. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. PLEASE SEE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO IS DRIVING NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE INTO THE GULF...WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 16 FT. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ALLOWING MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MAX SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WIND EVENT TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 98W FROM 08N-15N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N93W TO 08N98W TO 10N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-106W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND PUNTA EUGENIA AS WAS NOTED BY AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WERE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT IN PACIFIC WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON... ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AT LITTLE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. S OF 15N E OF 110W...A SHARP UPPER LOW EXTENDING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC YESTERDAY HAS BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...ALLOWING AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN FLARING ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH TO DIMINISH. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE-RELATED CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG THE COAST FROM 07N TO 14N. LONG PERIOD SW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT WAS NOTED IN RECENT ALTIMETER DATA GENERALLY S OF 05N W OF 90W. MODERATE SW FLOW PERSISTS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRESH SW FLOW WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD BUT WEAK LOW PRES SW OF GUATEMALA THIS WEEKEND. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM SUPPORTED BY NE GAP WIND FLOW OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS BY FRI. SEAS IN THE BAND OF FRESH SW FLOW S OF THE LOW PRES COULD 9 FT WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE COMPONENT OF SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES NEAR 29N126W WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRI AS RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISED ACROSS THIS AREA. A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FRI THEN STALL FROM 32N127W TO 26N140W BY LATE FRI AND BECOME DIFFUSE SAT. NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT FRI AND SAT...SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS 130W BY SUN. FARTHER SOUTH...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WEST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E...SOUTH OF WEAK HIGH PRES. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR 10N128W BY 48 HOURS. $$ AGUIRRE