000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140247 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED OCT 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 17N110W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS WEEK OR THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 92W N OF 08N TO SW GUATEMALA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 180 NM FROM 10N-13N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 90W-96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. NO MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ WAS ANALYZED. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE COAST REFLECTS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE FROM 30N125W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N126W TO 23N128W. THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE TROPICS HAS BEEN CUT OFF TO THE LOW...AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN PRIMARILY NE OF THE SURFACE LOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY JET ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALONG A LINE FROM 25N112W TO 10N128W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N-NE. MEANWHILE...THE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AND SHIFT W AWAY FROM THE COAST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT IS FORCED WED EVENING AND THU...DISSIPATING BY THU NIGHT. ONLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WAS FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. A MODERATE TO FRESH N-NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THU AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE W...INCREASING THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 48N128W THROUGH 29N140W. MAINLY MODERATE E-NE WINDS WERE FOUND S AND E OF THE RIDGE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST WEAKEN AND OOZE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS N-NE. NE TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT S AS THE RIDGING BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE N OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT 7-9 FT SEAS TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 05N W OF 93W. CONDITIONS SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE HERE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO WILL DRIVE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS WED MORNING. WINDS WILL ABATE SLIGHTLY BY AFTERNOON AFTER THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WANES. NEAR GALE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY THU MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. $$ SCHAUER