000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N105W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N105W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N- 11N BETWEEN 104W-110W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER MIDWEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N79W TO 08N84W TO 10N92W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N105W 1008 MB TO 09N109W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N116W TO 09N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 05N BETWEEN 80W-86W AS WELL AS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W-137W. ...DISCUSSION... A VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA REFLECTS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE FROM 29N120W TO 22N123W. MOISTURE IS WRAPPING ALONG THE NE SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE MID-LEVELS TOWARD THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N-26N. LIGHTNING IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT STRIKES IN THIS AREA. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N-NW. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT WERE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS SEEN BY SHIP C6TX6 NEAR 28N116W AT 1900 UTC. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH TUE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE MORNING AS THE TROUGH TRACKS W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N136W THROUGH 32N140W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WERE FOUND SE OF THE RIDGE TO 20N125W AND FROM 10N-20N W OF 130W...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 124W AND 128W ACCORDING TO RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS THE VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PACIFIC COAST MOVES N-NW. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT TUE INTO WED...WITH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. CURRENTLY...NW SWELL TO 8 FT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL WATERS N OF 24N UNDER THE NE WINDS. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. TO THE SW...AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NORA W OF THE AREA WAS FROM 13N-18N W OF 139W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-20 SECOND RANGE HAS PUSHED ASHORE ON THE PACIFIC COAST OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS SWELL IS LIKELY MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THIS SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER IN THE WEEK. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO WILL DRIVE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WED AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER