000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120911 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 15N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W 1010 MB CONTINUES MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OR LOW PRES CURRENTLY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N92W TO 10N98W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N102W TO 12N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N117W TO 12N125W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF COAST BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 25N120W IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N115W TO 22N115W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 04 UTC INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATED SEAS IN THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY REACHING 8 TO 10 FT. THE SUPPORTING CUT OFF LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH TROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW TROUGH TO MOVE NW THROUGH TUE AND DISSIPATE. THIS IN TURN WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND ALLOW THE SE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO THEIR MORE STANDARD NW FLOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH LATE TUE. FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL ALLOW A BRIEF SHOT OF FRESH NW FLOW LATE TUE INTO WED. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING UNDER A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG GAP WINDS IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES AGAIN BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BY WED NIGHT. S OF 15N E OF 110W...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 09N102W. WHILE THE LOW REMAINS GENERALLY WELL ORGANIZED IN AN AREA OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...IT IS STILL CLOSE TO SUBSIDENT UPPER NE FLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE NORTH NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO...KEEPING CONVECTION LIMITED. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONLY GRADUALLY THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER WEST...CROSS W OF 110W BY LATE TUE. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY WEAK CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MODEST WINDS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT DUE IN PART TO PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING SW FLOW THROUGH THU...WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES W OF COSTA RICA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE...1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N138W WILL MOVE NW THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS ALREADY ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH S OF 20N. CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W IS ALSO LIMITED AS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES. ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT N OF 20N W OF 120W. THIS IS DUE TO RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILARLY MIXED SWELL FROM 14N TO 18N W OF 139W ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF T.S. NORA...NOW LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA...IS RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AND WILL BE BELOW 8 FT LATER TODAY. A BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-22 SECOND RANGE HAS MOVED ONTO THE COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO AS WELL AS ONTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAINLY S OF MAZATLAN AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. $$ CHRISTENSEN