000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112116 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W 1008 MB. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM BY LATE THIS WEEK. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N80W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W 1008 MB TO 08N108W TO 09N112W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N116W TO 10N128W TO 12N139W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 82W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... A VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS REFLECTED TWO TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE. THE EASTERN TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 26N114W TO LOW PRES NEAR 22N115W 1009 MB. A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED NORTHWARD E OF THE TROUGH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25N108W TO 13N114W. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS AND SEAS TO 10 FT WERE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE MON. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MON AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WESTERN SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 27N118W TO 23N121W...CLOSER TO THE DEEP-LAYERED CENTER. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK W-NW WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR THE TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE DEEP-LAYERED CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH STARTING MON. 1022 MB HIGH PRES WAS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N131W AND EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 30N118W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS WERE FOUND SW OF THE RIDGE. THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD AS THE VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT MON INTO TUE...WITH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...NW SWELL TO 8 FT LIES ACROSS THE NW WATERS UNDER THE TRADES. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS MON AND SUBSIDE BY TUE AFTERNOON. A BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE HAS MOVED ONTO THE COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE WERE GENERALLY BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST MON MORNING. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING...UNDER A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW. SEAS WERE AS HIGH AS 10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. $$ SCHAUER