000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111603 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N98W TO LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 08N99W...MOVING W AT 10 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 107W. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 09N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N99W TO 10N109W. THEN THERE IS A DISCONTINUITY IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...IT RESUMES AT 14N119W AND CONTINUES TO 09N128W TO 11N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 13N E OF 95W AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N118W WITH A SHARP TROUGH REACHING SSW TO 13N118W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N114W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES NORTH FROM THE LOW PRES TO NEAR 26N115W. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT REMAIN IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND CABO SAN LUCAS...FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W WITH SEAS 8 TO 9 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 29N BETWEEN 107W AND 115W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND GULF WATERS. THE SUPPORTING LOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH MID WEEK AND N OF 30N BY EARLY THU. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE WNW WHILE IT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS TO BECOME A SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THU N OF THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND ALLOW THE SE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRES AREA TO THE SOUTH. THE PULSE OF STRONG WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...THUS REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE IS FORECAST IN THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING FROM 10 FT TO LESS THAN 8 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT STRONG PULSE WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP FROM THIS SYSTEM BY LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT FRESH WSW FLOW WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE E SEMICIRCLE STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING TO TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM NORA IS WEST OF 140W NEAR 12N. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION N OF 21N W OF 130W...NORTH OF THE EXITING TROPICAL STORM NORA. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC. OVER FORECAST WATERS...WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11.5N TO 17N W OF 138W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 24N W OF 137W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. THE SWELL WILL DECAY...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ NR