000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110916
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG ROUGHLY 97W/98W FROM 
LOW PRES NEAR 08N98W 1009 MB TO 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N98W TO 13N110W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THEN 
DISCONTINUOUS...RESUMING AT 15N115W AND CONTINUING TO 10N125W 
AND 11N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
24N117W WITH A SHARP TROUGH REACHING SOUTH TO 11N120W. AN 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED CLOSE TO CLARION ISLAND NEAR 
18N115W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. A SURFACE TROUGH 
REACHES NORTH FROM THE LOW PRES TOWARD PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A 22 UTC ASCAT PASS AND A 04 UTC 
ALTIMETER PASS CONFIRMED STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS TO AT LEAST 8 
FT IN THE AREA BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND CABO SAN LUCAS. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING 
WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...MOVING ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR. THE SUPPORTING CUT OFF LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH 
TROUGH MID WEEK AHEAD OF DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW MOVE NW THROUGH 
MONDAY AND WEAKEN. THIS IN TURN WILL LOOSEN THE GRADIENT ALONG 
THE BAJA COAST AND ALLOW THE SE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS FUNNELING INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH 
PRES TO THE NORTH AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW 
PRES AREA TO THE SOUTH. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM NEAR 01 UTC 
INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT...BUT THIS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 10 FT 
ALREADY. THE PULSE OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE 
TODAY...WITH A PLUME OF SEAS TO 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 400 NM 
SW OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SECOND WEAKER PULSE IS EXPECTED 
TONIGHT...THEN WINDS DIMINISH 20 KT OR LESS AS RIDGING N OF THE 
AREA WEAKENS. THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT 
STRONG PULSE WILL BE TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS AGAIN NORTH 
OF THE AREA. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRES NEAR 08N98W APPEARS 
TO BE FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED... CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN DISPLACED 
FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW. THE LOW PRES AND ITS ATTENDANT 
TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THROUGH THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BECOMING GRADUALLY BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT 
GETS INTO AN AREA OF LOW ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WHILE RETAINING 
GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THIS SYSTEM 
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME AFTER IT MOVES W OF 
110W BY LATE TUE. WINDS REMAIN VERY WEAK NEAR THE LOW PRES AS 
NOTED IN NEARBY TOGA BUOY OBSERVATIONS...BUT EXPECT FRESH SW 
FLOW WITH SEAS TO 8 FT BY MONDAY WITHIN 210 NM OF THE SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM NORA HAS MOVED WEST OF 140W NEAR 12N. 
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 
120W...NORTH OF THE EXITING TROPICAL STORM NORA. LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES FROM THE PAST 
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES SEAS 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N AND W OF 130W. 
THE SWELL WILL DECAY AS PUSHES EAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE 
REGION N OF 20N W OF 120W THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING 
BELOW 8 FT MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE 
BREEZES WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO 
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW 
PRES...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACROSS THE DEEP 
TROPICS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN