000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102106
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 138.5W AT 2100 UTC 
OCT 10 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NW QUADRANT. NORA IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH SUN EVENING AFTER THE SYSTEM 
SHIFTS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                             

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS NEAR 15N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N96W TO 
05N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. THIS 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N77W TO 10N85W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 08N96W TO 13N117W TO 12N130W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 88W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N116W HAS HELPED TO GENERATE 
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N112W TO 14N115W. LATEST ASCAT PASS 
INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
15N TO 20N. ACTIVE CONVECTION DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
EXTENDS FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WILL SHIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH FOLLOWING THE SUPPORT AND FORCING OF THE UPPER LOW 
WESTWARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO WEAKEN SUN INTO 
MON AND WINDS ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIMINISH TO 
20 KT OR LESS MON. 

SW SWELLS WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL MOVE ONTO THE 
COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO 
CORRIENTES MEXICO THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE 
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
SWELL WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST MON MORNING. THIS SWELL 
COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS 
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GAP WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BEING DRIVEN BY 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO 
AND A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING S OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL START TO DECREASE SUN AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER FROM THE 
AREA. 

$$
AL