000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.7N 137.2W AT 1500 UTC OCT 10 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NW QUADRANT. NORA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH SUN EVENING AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 15N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N95W 1009 MB. THE WAVE HAS MOVED W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 95W-99W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 10N- 14N. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY GIVEN A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N95W 1009 MB TO 07N100W TO 10N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N115W 1009 MB TO 14N125W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W-109W. ...DISCUSSION... 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 28N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 17N110W. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ARE FOUND E OF THE RIDGE AND MORE THAN 210 NM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO TREK N-NW AS THE VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT TONIGHT INTO SUN...WITH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE VAST UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS REFLECTED A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 30N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 25N115W 1011 MB TO 23N115W. TO THE S...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 20N11W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N115W 1009 MB. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PULLED N-NE INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. IT SHOULD ALSO MOVE A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 114W-119W AS WELL AS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 107W-115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DEEPENS. A FRESH TO STRONG S-SE BREEZE WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUN MORNING THROUGH SUN EVENING...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING INTO MON. A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS PASSED THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ONTO THE COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO THROUGH SUN MORNING. SEAS ALONG THE COAST HERE SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE PACIFIC COAST MON MORNING. THIS SWELL COULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...20-30 KT N-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER NE MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S. SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH A NOTCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN 0804 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED 8 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL JUST DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO. NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SHOULD HAVE KEPT THE FRESH E-NE WINDS AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 8 FT THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. $$ SCHAUER