000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100236 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.3N 135.1W AT 0300 UTC OCT 10 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM NW AND 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. NORA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH SUN AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS LIES NEAR 93W N OF 06N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUN. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N77W TO 09N84W TO 07N93W TO 12N113W TO 10N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 114W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS HELPING FOR AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS. THIS HAS GENERATED A NORTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT PROPAGATING INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 125W. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. A SET OF NW SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE OVER THE WATERS AND BY SUN AFTERNOON SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 17N140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 25N113W HAS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES. THIS UPPER LOW IS HELPING TO GENERATE AND AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 22N109W TO 18N114W. AS TYPICAL WITH CUTOFF LOWS...THE LOW WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL BUILD DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND. A FRESH TO STRONG S-SE BREEZE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY SUN MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO BY SUN EVENING. A SET OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...MOVE ONTO THE COAST OF ECUADOR...COLOMBIA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO SUN MORNING. SEAS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WHILE ENTERING AND EXITING PORTS...AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A SURGE OF 20-30 KT WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA HELPS INDUCE A GAP WIND EVENT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 11 FT OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ AL