000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090934
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI OCT 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N131W ARE 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE THE LOW MAY 
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY 
REACHING 25 KT ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOW PRES BETWEEN 
THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. WINDS AROUND 
THE LOW ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH LATE 
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK. WEAK EASTERLY 
SHEAR ACROSS THE LOW PRES WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH ALLOWING 
THE LOW TO DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AND THE 
SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT SHIFTS W OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. SEE 
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 06N95W TO 07N110W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

N OF 15N E OF 120W...VARIOUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO 
FRESH NW FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N127W AND A 
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH IS BEING 
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW BECOMING CUT OFF OVER NW MEXICO. A FEW 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE 
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THERE 
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TODAY AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN 
THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS MORE TO THE WEST. LOOKING 
AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER 
LOW WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...REACHING A POSITION OVER 
25N120W BY MONDAY. OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT IS CONVERGING 
ON A SOLUTION SHOWING ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES FORMING NEAR 
CLARION ISLAND BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...AND FRESH TO STRONG SE 
WINDS FUNNELING BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE C230OAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE SURFACE LOW 
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUPPORTING 
UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH AHEAD AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS OFF BAJA TO 
DIMINISH.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SHIP C6VG7 REPORTED WINDS TO 20 KT WHILE 
TRANSITING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER THIS EVENING. 
GIVEN RESIDUAL SW SWELL IN THE AREA...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT THERE 
ARE SEAS TO 8 FT ALREADY IN THE GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING BUT A STRONGER SURGE OF 20-30 KT 
WINDS WILL BEGIN SAT MORNING AS TROUGHING MOVES TO THE S OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER NE MEXICO. A STRONG PULSE OF 
GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING REACHING 
NEAR GALE FORCE DUE TO COOLER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO INTO TEHUANTEPEC.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...FRESH GAP WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG 90W. SEAS MAY BE REACHING 8 FT IN THE 
GULF WITH A MIX OF LINGERING SW SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES FORMING 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W SAT AND SUN...ASSISTED IN 
PART DUE TO STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THE 
LOW PRES WILL STAY INTACT AS IT MOVES W OF 110W THROUGH 
MON...THE LOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
IS NOT EXPECTED. 

ELSEWHERE...A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS INDICATED 8 TO 12 FT SEAS PERSISTING N OF 20N W OF 
130W...LEFT OVER AFTER EFFECTS OF HURRICANE OHO WHICH HAS SINCE 
SHIFT WELL N OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF NW SWELL 
OF 8 TO 10 FT ADVANCING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. BY SUNDAY...SOME OF THIS NW SWELL WILL BE MIXING WITH 
SHORTER PERIOD WAVES GENERATED FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES 
NEAR 130W OVER THE AREA FROM 10 TO 20N W OF 135W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN