000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082101
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU OCT 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N126W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
09N127W 1009 MB TO 05N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 
126W AND 132W. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A WEAK 
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER. THIS HAS HELPED INCREASE WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE TO 25 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N85W TO 06N96W TO 
08N105W TO 08N110W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 
31N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 22N137W AND SE TO NEAR 
20N111W. POST TROPICAL OHO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MOVE NNE AND 
FURTHER FROM THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH OHO IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR 
GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING NEAR 20 FT. 
OHO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER FROM THE AREA AND WINDS WILL 
RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
BELOW 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. 

SW SWELLS ARE COVERING THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE...FALLING BELOW 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF SW 
SWELL WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL REACH THE 
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI NIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA BY SAT NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A PULSE OF FRESH N WINDS IS EXPECTED FRI 
MORNING...BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. A STRONGER SURGE OF 20-30 KT 
WINDS WILL BEGIN SAT MORNING AS TROUGHING BUILDS S OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER NE MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSES OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT FRI AND SAT MORNING IN MIXED NE AND SW 
SWELL. 

$$
AL