000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081514 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N125W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N125W TO 03N125W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FOUND FROM 10N-14N WITHIN 210 NM E AND 240 NM W OF THE WAVE WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 180 NM AND 480 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 12N110W TO 10N117W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N125W 1009 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 91W AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-92W. ...DISCUSSION... 1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N127W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 29N123W TO 16N105W. WINDS W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE INFLUENCED BY POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OHO NW OF THE AREA. THE 0638 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED S-SE WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THE REMNANTS OF OHO SHOULD CONTINUE N-NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT THIS EVENING. AN 1130 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 14 FT...BUT IT LIKELY DID NOT HIT THE AREA OF HIGHEST SEAS WHICH ARE BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 20 FT OVER NW WATERS. THE AREA OF W-SW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS TEH SWELL TRAVELS SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH SEAS EXPECTED DROP BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 8 FT BY EARLY SAT MORNING. MAINLY MODERATE N-NW WINDS ARE FOUND E OF THE RIDGE ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE HIGH PRES CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SW INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRI AS THE REMNANTS OF OHO TRAVEL N-NE AND THE VAST UPPER LOW OVER NW MAINLAND MEXICO SHIFTS SW TO JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WESTWARD ACROSS N WATERS. AN AREA OF FRESH...OCCASIONALLY STRONG...N WINDS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 113W-122W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL WITH PERIODS AROUND 20 SECONDS. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SHIFT W AND WEAKEN FRI AND SAT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN A BIT...BUT KEEPING THE SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL. 1010 MB LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED NEAR 08N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 180 S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRAVELS W OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A VAST AREA OF SEAS TO 9 FT IN SW SWELL LIES OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS. WHILE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON...A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS AT OR ABOVE 20 SECONDS WILL REACH THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS FRI NIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA BY SAT NIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AFTER THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SUBSIDES. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N AND SW SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. A PULSE OF FRESH N WINDS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRI MORNING...BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT. A NEW SURGE OF 20-30 KT WINDS WILL BEGIN SAT MORNING AS TROUGHING BUILDS S OF TEHUANTEPEC AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER NE MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP SHJC REPORTED 23 KT NE WINDS NEAR 10N88W AT 1200 UTC. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AS HIGH AS 8 FT IN NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AFTER NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW ABATES. PULSES OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SEAS TO 8 FT FRI AND SAT MORNING IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL. $$ SCHAUER