000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072100
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED OCT 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                 
A LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB WAS CENTERED NEAT 08N121W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. 
THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 08N90W TO 10N107W TO 
08N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
                                            
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N125W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 17N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH FROM 23N121W TO 21N125W IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 
121W AND 126W. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WHICH WILL LOOSEN 
THE GRADIENT AND DECREASE ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. HURRICANE 
OHO WAS LOCATED W OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 26.6N 144.7W AT 2100 
UTC AND MOVING RAPIDLY NNE AT 33 KT. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED 
TO OHO HAVE STARTED TO AFFECT THE FAR NW WATERS. OHO WILL PASS 
JUST NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WINDS TO JUST BELOW 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WITH SEAS REACHING 
NEAR 21 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS OHO CONTINUES TO SHIFT 
FURTHER N OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL IMPROVE. BY 
FRI AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 
27N140W TO 30N132W.

GAP WINDS...                                                 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR 
LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$
AL