000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071009 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED OCT 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74.5W TO 07.5N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N116.5W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 06.5N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 105W. ...DISCUSSION... TROPICAL CYCLONE OHO WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY 465 NM E-NE OF HILO HAWAII ON THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING AND MOVING NE AT 20 KT. OHO WILL VEER SLIGHTLY N-NE AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND PASS JUST NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THU MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA W OF LINE FROM 22N140W TO 30N133W TONIGHT THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD THU. HURRICANE SWELL AND WIND GENERATED WAVES WILL RAISE SEAS 8 TO 20 FT ACROSS THESE NW PORTIONS LATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AS OHO PASSES NW OF THE AREA. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 31.5N113W TO 29N114W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. ELSEWHERE...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N126W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO 23N...BETWEEN OHO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 20.5N123.5W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MAINLY FRESH WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW AND 24N...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO MEANDER ABOUT THE GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS HIGH HAS ALSO BROUGHT ABOUT A RETURN TO N-NW WIND FLOW TO THE PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWING WINDS 10-15 KT JUST OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING THE COAST NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO. AS OHO MOVES N-NE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL BE SQUEEZED AND ATTEMPT TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD...PUSHING THE OLD FRONTAL TROUGH S-SE AND JUST BEYOND CABO SAN LUCAS...AND FRESHEN THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA TO 15-20 KT...WITH POCKETS OF 20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER TYPICAL DIURNAL INFLUENCE. THIS WILL INCREASE SEAS TO THE 5-6 FT RANGE AND BUILDING TO 6-7 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS BY THU NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL. A 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N116.5W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT...AND WAS PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM TO THE W. WINDS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THIS LOW ARE LIKELY TO 20 KT THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BEGINNING FRI AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVES RATHER QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST AND NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND SUPPORTING A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SW TO NEAR 12N97.5W THIS MORNING...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTRACT TO N OF 14.5N TONIGHT...AND ONLY PEAK AT 20-25 KT TONIGHT BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIB FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A RETURN TO OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTAL WATERS N OF 10N. NIGHT TIME WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 20 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND RELAX TO 10- 15 KT DURING THE DAY. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 120W GENERATING AN AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS S OF 06N W OF 98W. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS TWO NEW PULSES OF MODERATE SIZED SWELL CROSS THE EQUATOR...ONE THIS MORNING...AND A SECOND THU NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING