000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE OCT 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W TO 09N85W TO 10N100W TO 09N118W...WHERE IT FRACTURES...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 18.5N121.5W TO 10N128W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N135W TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 81W AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N106W AND FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 108W AND 118W ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N112W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 124W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED BETWEEN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUPPORTS THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 26N110W TO 32N113W. WINDS ARE ASSUMED TO BE SW TO NW 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS 2- 3 FT N OF 29.5N. THESE REMNANTS WILL COMPLETELY MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS IN THIS ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT BY EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N122W SUPPORTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PENINSULA...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 4-6 FT IN MIXED NNW WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND INDUCED A MORE TYPICAL N TO NNW WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE PENINSULA...WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENTS OF WINDS NEAR THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE N AND NW WATERS REACHING FROM NEAR 32N140W TO 20N128W. MEANWHILE A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 19N122W WITH NE TO E 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM NW QUADRANT AND ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 119W AND 123W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL. THIS LOW WILL SHIFT NW THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG WINDS BECOMING CONFINED TO JUST THE NW SEMICIRCLE...AND THEN WILL OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH FROM 22N124W TO 19N125W BY 30 HOURS...BUT STILL WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ACROSS N PORTIONS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. TROPICAL STORM OHO....CURRENTLY SE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WILL MOVE QUICKLY PAST NW PORTIONS THU...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP N OF 17N AND W OF 139W...WHERE S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 18 FT...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER. INTERESTS TRANSITING THIS REGION SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE EVOLVING FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM OHO. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS IS IS SUPPORTING A PLUME OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND TO NEAR 13N96W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS FROM 8 TO 10 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NE-E OFFSHORE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT BLOWING OFF OF NICARAGUA. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL SURROUNDS THE LOW AND COVERS THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A NEW SURGE/SET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EQUATOR. $$ NR