000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052153 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON OCT 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 12N98W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N107W TO 11N115W...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 16.5N122W TO 09N130W TO 13N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS WAS NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 114W...AND ALSO FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM 32N114W TO 30N115W. AN AFTERNOON ASCAT-A AND B SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE AREA OF WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARILY FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS NW BAJA THROUGH TUE MORNING ALLOWING FOR FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO LINGER IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE GULF...DIMINISHING BY TUE AFTERNOON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE NW VERACRUZ MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH HAS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO NEAR 12N98W. THIS COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW SUPPORTED A POCKET OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF EARLIER TODAY. NWP MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...PEAKING AT 30 KT TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY TUE MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 8-11 FT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. LATER NWP MODEL RUNS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SPINE/INTERIOR OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INDUCE FRESH NE-E WINDS IN THE GULF BY TUE MORNING WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING WITH WINDS UP TO STRONG LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EXTENDS ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND OFFSHORE INTO THE NE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 29N115W TO 24N123W. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NW- N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...EARLIER ALTIMETER DATA SAMPLED SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW-N SWELL WHICH COVER THE WATERS ROUGHLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BY 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING COVERS THE NW AND W CENTRAL WATERS REACHING FROM NEAR 32N139W TO 14N128W. MEANWHILE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 14.5N144W. FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE FLOWING INTO THE LOW CIRCULATION FROM THE W CENTRAL WATERS AND THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL ARE RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 137W. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SHIFTING TO THE AREA FROM 17N TO 26N W OF 138W WITH SE TO S WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE SAME AREA BY 48 HOURS. A 1006 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 16.5N122W. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA MISSED THE LOW PRES AREA. NWP MODELS SUGGEST 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS...THEN WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH FROM 22N123W TO 13N130W BY 48 HOURS WITH THE AREA OF RESIDUAL 8 FT SEAS SUBSIDING BY THEN. A LARGE AREA OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL SURROUNDS THE LOW AND COVERS THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A NEW SURGE/SET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE EQUATOR. $$ COBB