000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042150 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N78W TO 05N85W TO 10N96W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N102W 1006 MB TO 04N109W TO 04N111W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 17N117W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N123W TO 09N131W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 120W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1005 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N123W. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE S OF THE LOW SINCE IT HAS MOVED INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 120W- 128W. THE SYSTEM IS BEING LURED TO THE NE BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THE 1804 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A FRESH TO STRONG S-SW BREEZE WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET PULLS NE AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL SYSTEM. THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN TO A TROUGH ON TUE. HOWEVER...MERGING SW AND NW SWELL SHOULD HELP KEEP SEAS TO 9 FT. POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY LIES NEAR 23N107N WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. A TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 17N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND E OF THE TROUGH TO 103W...INCLUDING INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 102W-106W. THE 1706 UTC ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED S-SE WINDS TO 30 KT JUST OFF THE COAST FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO MAZATLAN. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE HERE. THE LOW PRES CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...BY SUNRISE MON. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM 32N117W TO 30N121W TO 32N131W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON MON. NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT SEAS IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE TO THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 119W-130W. THIS AREA OF HIGHER SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY MON EVENING AS THE SWELL TRAIN TRAVELS SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT HAS HELPED WEAKEN THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER N WATERS. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W. A REGION OF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS...CURRENTLY IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE...LIES OVER W WATERS FROM 05N-20N. THESE SEAS WILL MERGE MON WITH AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS TO THE REGION FROM 10N-17N W OF 138W MON AND TUE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO INDUCED A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES IN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND LOW PRES IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF MARTY LIE. THIS IS DRIVING STRONG TO NEAR GALE S-SW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH HERE BY MON AFTERNOON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...DEEP-LAYER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MAINLAND MEXICO TUE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS BEGINNING MON EVENING AND REACH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE TUE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW BEFORE BACKING OFF TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER