000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 12N86W TO 11N94W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 07N101W 1008 MB...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N117W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 14N123W 1006 MB TO 11N128W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 95W-105W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 180 NM AND 360 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 122W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 07N-13N W OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N123W. 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE NEAR THE LOW SINCE IT HAS MOVED 
INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 115W-124W. THE 
SYSTEM IS BEING LURED TO THE NE BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. 
WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A FRESH BREEZE AROUND 
THE LOW. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 9 FT WITHIN 180 
NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS TO 9 FT SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE SE 
QUADRANT...WHERE FRESH WINDS ARE MOST ABUNDANT...WITHIN 240 NM.  
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MERGING SW 
AND NW SWELL SHOULD HELP KEEP SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE 
ON SUN AND MON. 

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY...NEAR 19N109N...CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS WITHIN 210 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS...INCLUDING CABO 
CORRIENTES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW CENTER HAS ACCELERATED 
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME ENHANCED ALONG THE COAST FROM 20N-23N SUN AS THE REMNANT 
TROUGH IS FORCED TOWARD SHORE.

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED 
WESTWARD TODAY...NOW ENCOMPASSING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. 
AN AREA OF FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS LIES OVER W WATERS N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER A REGION OF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS FROM A 
SYSTEM W OF THE AREA YESTERDAY THAT RETREATED NORTHWARD LAST 
NIGHT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 15N-25N 
W OF 128W. THESE SEAS WILL MERGE SUN NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF 8-10 
FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS TO THE REGION 
FROM 06N-15N W OF 138W SUN AND MON. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 27N EARLY SUN...SHIFTING TO N OF 
30N AROUND SUNRISE SUN TILL MON AFTERNOON. SEAS MAY BUILD AS 
HIGH AS 8 FT.

$$
SCHAUER