000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N91W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 06N102W 1008 MB TO 05N107W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES 
NEAR 18N110W 1004 MB TO 16N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N123W 1006 MB 
TO 12N129W TO 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
240 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-104W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 150 NM AND 360 NM SE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-132W AS WELL AS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 45 NM S 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 131W-135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 08N-13N W OF 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 14N123W. 
CONVECTION HAS FLARED NEAR THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AS IT HAS 
MOVED INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 10N-16N 
BETWEEN 115W-125W. THE SYSTEM IS BEING LURED TO THE NE BY AN 
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THE 1824 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 20-25 
KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT. THE 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MERGING SW AND 
NW SWELL SHOULD HELP KEEP SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE ON 
SUN AND MON. 

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 
45 NM AND 180 NM NE QUADRANT AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS ELSEWHERE N OF 19N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W...INCLUDING OVER 
GUADALAJARA. THE 1642 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED SOME 20-25 KT 
WINDS STILL PERSIST WITHIN 75 NM N QUADRANT WHERE SEAS ARE 
BELIEVED TO BE 9 FT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 
MB. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY AS IT 
WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH SUN. 

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED 
WESTWARD TODAY...NOW ENCOMPASSING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. 
AN AREA OF FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS LIES OVER W WATERS N OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER A REGION OF GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS FROM A 
SYSTEM W OF THE AREA YESTERDAY THAT RETREATED NORTHWARD LAST 
NIGHT. SEAS TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL ARE CURRENTLY FOUND FROM 17N-27N 
W OF 129W. THESE SEAS WILL MERGE SUN NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF 8-10 
FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS TO THE REGION 
FROM 06N-12N W OF 138W SUN AND EARLY MON. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE 
WEAKENED AND TURNED MORE NORTHWESTERLY...DIMINISHING THE 
FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO DIP BELOW A STRONG BREEZE. 8 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN 
DISPLACED DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. 
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 27N EARLY SUN...SHIFTING TO N OF 
30N AROUND SUNRISE SUN TILL THE END OF THE PERIOD MON AFTERNOON. 
SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 FT.

$$
SCHAUER