000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030242
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT OCT 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N86W TO 11N91W TO 04N104W 
TO 05N111W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 18N110W 1007 MB 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N126W 1006 MB TO 09N133W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W-126W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N126W. 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO NOT BE PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW 
CENTER...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION STRUNG OUT E OF THE 
LOW WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-126W.  
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT 
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE 
SYSTEM BEING LURED NE BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THE 
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NE OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW THE 
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER 
ON SAT...BUT LOOK FOR A SOLID FRESH SW BREEZE TO AGAIN PICK UP 
ON SUN AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION 
OF THE UPPER JET. CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AT THAT TIME. 
SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN SE SWELL CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE AND 450 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
A BIT SAT...BUT BUILD TO 9 FT AGAIN IN MERGING SE AND NW SWELL 
SUN.

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FOUND 
WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N QUADRANT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION...THE WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN 
THE N SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS AND 
BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH ON SAT. 

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 20N. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS TIGHTENED...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW 
WINDS SEEN IN THE 1700 UTC ASCAT-B PASS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE TO 8 FT. THESE 
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TIGHTEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS NW AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 
TROUGHING N OF THE AREA. 

SURFACE TROUGHING JUST W OF THE AREA IS DIRECTING FRESH TO 
STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE 
BUILT AHEAD OF THE WINDS...WITH TO 8 TO 11 FT NOTED N OF 23N W 
OF 131W. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS 
LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGHING W OF THE AREA SHIFTS NORTHWARD. 
AFTER THE WINDS DIMINISH...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS WILL SHIFT 
SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS 
BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS TO THE REGION FROM 
06N-12N W OF 138W ON SUN. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IS DRIVING A 
SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY SAT...DIMINISHING THE FUNNELING 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO DIP BELOW A STRONG BREEZE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS 
TO 12 FT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N FROM EARLY SUN TILL THE END OF THE 
PERIOD SUN EVENING. 

$$
SCHAUER