000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.               
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N85W TO 08N96W TO 
04N108W...THEN CONTINUES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 18N109W 1007 MB TO 
LOW PRES NEAR13N125W 1005 MB TO 09N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-11N BETWEEN 95W-103W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1005 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N125W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO NOT BE PERSISTENT NEAR THE LOW CENTER. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT 
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE 
SYSTEM BEING LURED NE BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. THE 
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NE. 
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 90 NM AND 330 NM SE 
SEMICIRCLE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR A 
SOLID FRESH SW BREEZE TO AGAIN PICK UP ON SUN AFTERNOON AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. 
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AT THAT TIME. SEAS SHOULD ALSO 
BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE S QUADRANT IN MERGING SE AND NW SWELL AT 
THAT TIME.

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE CENTER EXCEPT 240 NM N QUADRANT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT 
CONVECTION...THE WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN 
THE N SEMICIRCLE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH ON 
SAT AS IT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY. 

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 20N. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS TIGHTENED...WITH FRESH TO STRONG N-NW 
WINDS SEEN IN THE 1700 UTC ASCAT-B PASS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE TO 8 FT. THESE 
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TIGHTEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS NW AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 
TROUGHING N OF THE AREA. 

SURFACE TROUGHING JUST W OF THE AREA IS DIRECTING FRESH TO 
STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE 
BUILT AHEAD OF THE WINDS...WITH TO 8 TO 11 FT NOTED W OF A LINE 
FROM 32N133W TO 24N140W. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO A FRESH 
BREEZE OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGHING W OF THE AREA SHIFTS 
NORTHWARD. AFTER THE WINDS DIMINISH...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS 
WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN AREA OF 8-10 
FT SEAS BEING GENERATED BY A LOW PRES SYSTEM W OF THE AREA THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS TO THE REGION 
FROM 06N-12N W OF 138W ON SUN. 

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IS DRIVING A 
SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY SAT...DIMINISHING THE FUNNELING 
THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO DIP BELOW A STRONG BREEZE BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS 
TO 12 FT CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
  
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 
UNITED STATES AND NW MEXICO WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE U.S. GREAT BASIN AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD DRIVE FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N FROM EARLY SUN TILL THE END OF THE 
PERIOD SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$
SCHAUER