000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1004 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N125W 
MOVING W-SW 5-10 KT. ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...WELL 
REMOVED FROM THE LOW...IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N126W. ASCAT DATA 
FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DID NOT SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH 
THIS LOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY IN A W TO W-SW DIRECTION...AND INTO A MORE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT IS THEN 
EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM 
POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE END OF THE 
WEEKEND.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS SPLIT INTO TWO SEGMENTS. THE FIRST 
EXTENDS FROM FROM 12N86W TO 08N96W TO 05N107W. THE SECOND 
EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF MARTY...NEAR 17N109W...TO  
16N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N125W TO 10N130W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-107W...AND ALSO BETWEEN 133W-138W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 118W-120W...AND FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 129W-131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION...AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURRING TO THE SE 
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE IS E OF THE LOW IN 
THE VICINITY OF LAS ISLAS TRES MARIAS. EARLIER CONVECTION NOTED 
NEAR THE COAST OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED. SURFACE 
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT IN 
THE NW QUADRANT AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE AROUND THE LOW WITH SEAS 
OF 5-7 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES 
SLOWLY NW AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. ITS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A  
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 22N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD ON 
SUN. THE ALREADY PRESENT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS ALLOWING FOR NW-N WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO BE PRESENT 
N OF 28N E OF 117W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS OF
6-8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 15-20 KT BY 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 6-7 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT IS 
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AGAIN BY THIS EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE 
OF NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 116.5W TO 
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN LATE 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY IN SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING. SEAS BUILD AGAIN 
TO 8 FT SAT AFTERNOON AS A SWELL TRAIN BEGINS TO INVADE THE NE 
PORTION OF THE AREA AND LASTING INTO SUN. 

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BUILD FURTHER W OF THE LOCAL AREA... 
RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE 
WINDS...REACHING 8 TO 10 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL THIS MORNING 
THEN BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FT ACROSS THE EXTREME NW CORNER 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE WINDS DIMINISH 
SAT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED. THESE 
SEAS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM 15N-23N W OF 126W BY 
SAT NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN 
MEXICO BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IS SWEEPING ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SURGE OF 
WINDS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN 
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT EARLY ON SAT...AND TO 15-20 KT SAT 
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-8 FT 
SAT AFTERNOON...AND TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS DOWNSTREAM 
OF THE GULF TO NEAR 12N97W WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING 
TO 5-6 FT SAT NIGHT. 
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GAP WIND PRONE AREAS...LOW 
PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION E OF 110W IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE FIRST MONSOON TROUGH SEGMENT IS COMBINING WITH BROAD LOW 
PRESSURE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN INFLUENCED BY 
HURRICANE JOAQUIN...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE ONSHORE WINDS E 
OF 92W REACHING THE COASTLINES. THIS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL ONSHORE 
REGIONAL WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS PORTION 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
  
$$
AGUIRRE