000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0030 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N123W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DISPLACED BETWEEN 90 
NM AND 240 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM S QUADRANT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO A MORE 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IT MAY BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT 
AFTERNOON.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 
12N100W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N123W 
1006 MB TO 09N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
BETWEEN 210 NM AND 390 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 126W-130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP 
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 150 
NM N QUADRANT AND BETWEEN 90 NM AND 240 NM SE QUADRANT. THE 1724 
UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED 20-25 WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE. 
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION...THE WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL IN 
THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED THE 
CENTER IS ELONGATED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME 
AN OPEN TROUGH ON FRI AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE 
COAST. 

SURFACE RIDGING ORIGINATING WELL N OF THE AREA EXTENDS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 23N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN. THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS...WITH FRESH TO 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG N-NW WINDS EXPECTED EARLY FRI THROUGH EARLY 
SAT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 FT. 

SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BUILD FURTHER W OF THE AREA...DIRECTING 
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE WINDS...WITH TO 
8 TO 10 FT EXPECTED IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL BY FRI MORNING AND 
BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 13 FT BY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE WINDS 
DIMINISH...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SEAS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND 
EASTWARD...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT EXPECTED WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 32N122W TO 15N140W BY SAT EVENING.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN 
MEXICO. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE 
WINDS IS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 12 FT FRI. BY SAT AFTERNOON...WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TURN MORE 
NORTHWESTERLY...DIMINISHING THE FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS 
AND ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO DIP BELOW A 
STRONG BREEZE.
  
$$
SCHAUER