000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011531 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU OCT 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MARTY IS CENTERED NEAR 17N105W AT 01/1500 UTC 140 NM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE N QUADRANT. EVEN THOUGH MARTY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SW MEXICO WHICH COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARTY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE REMNANT LOW SPINS DOWN... DISSIPATING INTO A TROUGH BY 36 HOURS. A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. ANOTHER A 1006 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO LOWS TO MERGE NEAR 12N126W. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY AND DRIFT TO 12N128W AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N83W TO 10N90W TO 07N101W THEN RESUMES FROM 16N115W TO 14N121W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N123W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N127W 1006 MB TO 08N134W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF PANAMA N OF 04N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N. ...DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N139W TO 27N118W. THE RIDGING IS BEING COMPROMISED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N127W TO 36N124W TO 30N126W TO 24N135W. THE FRONT S OF 30N WILL BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH FRESH N-NW WINDS EXPECTED FRI OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. AS A RESULT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. MEANWHILE TROUGHING WILL BUILD FURTHER W OF THE AREA DIRECTING FRESH SE TO S WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS FRI. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT HERE FRI IN MIXED SE AND NW SWELL BUILDING UP TO 12 FT NEAR 30N140W SAT AS THE EDGE OF SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SPREADS TO THE SE COVERING THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 130W BY SAT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...A SURGE OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS IS OCCURRING FROM THE GULF DOWNSTREAM TO 14.5N95.5W AS CONFIRMED BY RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A GALE WARNING IS REQUIRED. THE LATEST TAFB-NWPS WAVE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. $$ FORMOSA