000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN SEP 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARTY CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 27/1500 UTC 
MOVING NNE 015 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 
60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF 
CENTER EXCEPT 120 NM IN NW QUADRANT. MARTY EXPECTED TO MOVE NNE 
AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE AS IT INTENSIFIES 
INTO A HURRICANE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN WILL 
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...INCREASING THE 
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. LARGE 
SWELL WILL PROPAGATE TOWARD SHORE RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SURF 
AND RIP CURRENTS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

EASTERN PORTION OF MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N90W. 
WESTERN PORTION EXTENDS FROM 13N106W TO 12N116W TO 08N126W TO 
10N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 
85W-88W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N121W. 
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS 10-
15 KT. 

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 
33N135W TO 30N135W TO 27N140W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE 
FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE MOVING INTO NW PORTION 
OF DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT E-SE WHILE 
THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SE SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE-FRESH WINDS S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 87W AND 123W IS PRODUCING 8-9 FT 
SEAS ACROSS S CENTRAL WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA.
     
$$
MUNDELL