000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 
12N103W IS MOVING SLOWLY NNW. DISORGANIZED MODERATE TO STRONG  
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION IS HIGH...LIKELY TO OCCUR.
    
...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N137W TO 04N139W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-10N.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N91W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 12N103W TO 09N128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 13N91W HAS ACTIVE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60-90 NM E OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NNE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE 
INLAND. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MAY 
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF EL SALVADOR... 
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND/OR MUDSLIDES. 

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W 
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE 
SE AS A SHORT WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THE LOW N OF THE 
AREA ATTACHED TO THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF 30N WILL 
PRODUCE 8-11 FT N SWELL WHICH WILL SWEEP INTO THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA SUN THROUGH MON. ELSEWHERE 8-9 FT SOUTHERLY 
SWELL WILL LINGER S OF THE EQUATOR IN CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON.
  
GAP WINDS...AN ASCAT PASS AT 0400 UTC SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS IN THE SAME AREA ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT 
LATE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AFTERWARDS.

$$
MUNDELL