000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241026 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU SEP 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.               

...TROPICAL LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES... 

A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED AT 11N92W...AND A TROPICAL WAVE 
AXIS TO ITS W ALONG 98W FROM 04N-13N. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY 
WNW...WHILE THE WAVE IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. LATEST IR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND THE LOW 
IS JUST W OF THE WAVE. THIS CONVECTION CONSISTS OF THE SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 120 NM NE AND 60 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 07N-09N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS N AND NW OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE 
FROM 14N97.5W TO 17N101W. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRES 
GYRE OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS THAT COVERS THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ROUGHLY FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 84W-100W. 
NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE LOW PRES WILL FORM 
WITHIN THIS GYRE LATER THIS WEEK AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES N OR 
NE TOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO.  
   
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 126W FROM 04N-13N MOVING W NEAR 13 
KT. THE 0622 UTC ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE NE TO SE WIND SHIFT 
OVER THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM 
OF 04N129W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SEEN WITHIN 180 NM W 
OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-13N.  

A NEARLY STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 14N133W...SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 
THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT. THIS LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 
A TROUGH TODAY. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF  
COLOMBIA AT 11N75W TO ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN EXTENDS NW TO THE EMBEDDED 
LOW PRES AT 11N92W...THEN CONTINUES W THROUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE 
THAT IS ALONG 98W AND TO 08N102W TO 08N113W TO 06N125W. THE  
ITCZ AXIS AS DEFINED IN THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES EXTENDS FROM 
06N127W TO 05N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 97W-100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE  
TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-90W...ALSO WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 103W-112W...AND S OF ITCZ WITHIN 45 NM OF 02N139W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 36N128W SE THROUGH 32N128W TO NEAR 18N114W. LIGHT TO GENTLE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE 
N OF 17N AND W OF 116W. THE PRES GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO AT TIMES MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC WATERS FROM 21-27N BETWEEN 108-115W AS WELL AS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TO THE S OF 27N. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS 
ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI...THEN STRONGER HIGH PRES WILL 
BRIDGE SE INTO THE N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS SAT TIGHTENING THE 
PRES GRADIENT JUST TO N OF THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH 
NW SWELL PROPAGATING S TO NEAR 30N BETWEEN 118W-124W WHERE 
RESULTANT SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AROUND 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH WINDS AND SEAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD LOW 
PRES SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...PULSES OF STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE AROUND 
SUNRISE EACH MORNING WHEN THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF
20-30 KT WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 8-11 FT. 
     
$$
AGUIRRE