000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240233
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU SEP 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               

...TROPICAL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES... 

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 10N91.5W AND A TROPICAL 
WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06-14N ALONG 98W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 
ABOUT 12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
SURROUNDS THESE TWO FEATURES FROM 06-14N BETWEEN 87-106W.
   
A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 03-13N ALONG 124-125W...AND 
HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF WAVE AXIS.

A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS SPINNING NEAR 14N133W WITH ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE NE 
QUADRANT. THIS LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH ON 
THU. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF  
COLOMBIA AT 11N75W TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC 
COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN EXTENDS NW TO THE EMBEDDED 
LOW PRES AT 10N91W...THEN CONTINUES W THROUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AT 10N98W TO 09N108W TO 11N116W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. EXCEPT 
AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TWO TROPICAL 
LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 05N130W TO 02N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 
120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 15N106W. LIGHT TO  
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
TO THE N OF 17N AND W OF 116W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE 
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE NW FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS 
FROM 21-27N BETWEEN 108-115W TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
TO THE S OF 27N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE TILL THE GRADIENT RELAXES 
ON FRI WHEN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
S OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM 14-21N BETWEEN 
115-123W ON FRI. 

GAP WINDS...PULSES OF STRONG N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED DURING MAXIMUM DRAINAGE AROUND 
SUNRISE EACH MORNING.  
    
$$
NELSON