000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 96W FROM 05N-16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-16N. SCATTERED/MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 06N-09N. THIS WAVE WILL BECOME INVOLVED IN A BROAD GYRE OF LOW PRES BY LATE THU WITH PERHAPS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS SHEAR VORTICITY FROM THE ONGOING GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT ADDS MOMENTUM TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN THE GYRE. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 122W FROM 05N-15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE 0504 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE NE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM W OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-14N BETWEEN 118-124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 09N77W TO ACROSS NORTHERN PANAMA AND TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...AND CONTINUES W TO 09N96W TO 09N110W...THEN TURNS SLIGHTLY NW TO 10N123W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES AT 15N135W AND SW TO BEYOND 12N140W. EXCEPT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 134W-136W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 04-10N BETWEEN 81W-89W...AND ALSO FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 89W-92W. ...DISCUSSION... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N135W TO 26N123W TO NEAR 14N110W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA BETWEEN 130W- 140W. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SMALL PATCHES OF MODERATE WINDS NEAR THE WAVE ALONG 122W... ...OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION FROM 14N-17N W OF 134W AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA S TO 21N BETWEEN 105W-115W. A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THU WILL DISSIPATING AND KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE RATHER WEAK. STRONGER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD SE OVER THE NW PORTION FRI. GAP WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG 96W IS BRINGING SURGES OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...AND OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 8-11 FT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT THU EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL ARE EVIDENT S OF A LINE FROM 00N128W TO 06N115W TO 03.4S102W WHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 15-20 KT. THESE SEAS SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY THU AS ANOTHER SET OF MAINLY SW SWELL JUST CROSSES THE EQUATOR. $$ AGUIRRE