000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212140
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON SEP 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT 
LOW AS OF 2100 UTC. 
 
...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 107W FROM 07N TO 13N...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 12N103W WHERE IT 
REMAINS FRACTURED. IT RESUMES FROM 16N118W TO 13N125W TO BEYOND 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
240 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 124W AND 133W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E IS INLAND NEAR 30.7N 111.7W 1005 MB AT 
2100 UTC SEP 21 MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH TO GUSTS 35 KT. OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 27N TO 29N WINDS ARE 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 
FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NE OF THE CENTER OVER N 
MEXICO N OF 29N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THE 
REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR WITH 
AND WELL AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION OVER BAJA NW MAINLAND 
MEXICO...ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUE. THESE RAINS COULD 
PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND LEAD TO MUDSLIDES... 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. WINDS AND 
SEAS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH BY 22/0600 UTC TO 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1027 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N154W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 22N130W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGE AND MONSOON TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY 
FRESH NE TRADE WINDS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA W OR 
127W. THIS IS RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 14N TO 16N W OF 
138W. THE HIGH PRES CENTER WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY 
TONIGHT.
 
GAP WINDS...A PULSING OF NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS TO NEAR 30 KT TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. WINDS 
ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT DURING TUE AFTERNOON WITH 
SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 8 FT. 
 
$$
FORMOSA