000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171555
TWDEP 

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 151334
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC THU SEP 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

.A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 13N109W TO 22N110W AND HAS   
MOVED W AT 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 20-24N BETWEEN 104-107W AND EXTENDS E OVER THE COAST 
OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN 21-24N. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP NEAR 18N113W ON FRI AND MOVE NW TO NEAR 19N115W ON SAT 
AND NEAR 21N116W ON SUN.     
 
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N133W TO 22N126W WITH MODERATE 
CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH NE 
TRADES ARE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH...COMBINED 
SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE OBSERVED IN MIXED NE AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE 
SWELL. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WEAKWRKEN AND GRADUALLY FILL 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE GRADIENT S OF A RIDGE FROM 30N140W 
TO 22N110W WILL SUPPORT 15-20 NE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF 
10N W OF 130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO THE 
DEVELOPING NE TRADE SWELL MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY 
SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE IN THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF  
COLOMBIA AT 09N76W TO 10N80W THEN TURNS SW ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA 
TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA AT 08N82W TO 08N85W...THEN TURNS 
NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 16N110W....THEN TURNS SW TO 10N125W... 
THEN CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 11N140W. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N78W TO 09N84W 
TO 05N104W...WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N120W TO 
08N125W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N W OF 135W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-8 FT COMBINED SEAS WILL 
PROPAGATE S ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF N OF 29N BETWEEN 
120-126W ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON SAT.  
  
$$
NELSON