000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161546
TWDEP 

ZCZC MIAWRKEP 151334
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED SEP 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 12N ALONG 88W AND IS ENHANCING  
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N105W TO 18N106W AND HAS   
BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER WATERS FROM 09-22N 
BETWEEN 98-109W...BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N112W TO 22N113W WITH AN EMBEDDED 
LOW PRES AT 15N112W. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 5 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM W OF WAVE AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. 
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND 
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL NE-SW ORIENTATED 
TROUGH.

A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED AT 16N130W WITH A TROUGH    
EXTENDING N TO NEAR 20N128W. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 5-
10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH. 
WRK
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 08N78W TO 10N90W...THEN TURNS NW THROUGH 10N95W TO A TROPICAL 
WAVE AT 15N105W...THEN RESUMES SW OF THE LOW PRES AT 15N112W TO 
10N125W WHERE THE TROUGH LOSES IDENTITY. EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N77W TO 07N105W AND ALSO WITHIN 75 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N117W TO 05N128W TO 06N135W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER   
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 32N114W TO 24N111W. THE GRADIENT 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT S-SW 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 31N. 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX 
TONIGHT.
  
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N140W TO 22N109W. THE GRADIENT SW OF THE  
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING NE 20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM 18-
22N W OF 126W WHERE COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-8 
FT ON THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.    
 
$$
NELSON