000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE SEP 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N100W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
15N109W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS 
SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 103W WHICH CORRELATES 
WELL WITH THE WAVE LOCATION. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE IN THE 
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N108W TO 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
15N109W TO 13N109W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES 
WITH 700 MB TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE 
GFS. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES      
NEAR 10N101W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N109W TO 11N120W TO 08N129W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN   
300 NM IN THE S QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 10N101W...WITHIN 240 NM 
SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 118W...AND WITHIN 240 NM SE OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA FROM 32N115W TO NEAR 30N115W. THIS TROUGHING IS 
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG S-SW WINDS JUST TO THE E OF THE 
TROUGH IN THE GULF N OF 30N. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH 
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES LATER ON TUE.

LOW PRES OF 1012 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N120W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N118W TO  
THE LOW CENTER TO 26N122W. WINDS NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT AND SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST 
TO SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH TONIGHT AS IS DRIFTS 
EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N127W WITH A TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 19N126W TO THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IN WITHIN 105 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW. THIS 
LOW WILL DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODIC BURSTS OF 
CONVECTION EXPECTED. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS BREACHED THE EQUATOR WITH 
SEAS OF 8-9 FT REACHING TO 04N122W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE TO THE NE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS HOWEVER SEAS OF 8 
FT OR GREATER WILL NOT MAKE MUCH FORWARD PROGRESS...SUBSIDING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGHOUT BY EARLY WED.

$$
LEWITSKY