000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC MON SEP 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.               

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N95W TO 09N96W...MOVING W AT 10 
KT. 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE WAVE. 
LOCATION. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 
92W AND 99W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH 
DIURNAL INFLUENCES OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO AND S AMERICA AND MAY 
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N106W TO 10N107W MOVING W AT 10 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING AND AN 850 MB 
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE GFS. SSMI TPW SHOWS HIGH MOISTURE IN 
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N114W TO 09N115W MOVING W AT 5 TO 
10 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES WITH 
AN INVERTED TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 115W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W ACROSS WESTERN 
PANAMA TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N98W TO 13N105. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 10N135W TO BEYOND 08N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 
04N TO 09N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES OF 1008 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 28N123W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N120W TO THE 
LOW CENTER TO 25N125W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 15 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL 
LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
SPIN DOWN AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IS 
DRIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N126W WITH A TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 18N124W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 13N126W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 129W. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO FROM 22N108W TO 
17N110W AND IS EVIDENT IN EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS 
MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED 
MILES E OF THE TROUGH S OF 19N. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST...AND DIURNAL 
INFLUENCES FROM THE MEXICO COAST.  

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EVIDENT IN 0900 UTC 
ALTIMETER DATA AS FAR N AS 02S...AND IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA 
OF DISCUSSION THIS MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 9 FEET LATER 
TODAY W OF 113W...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT 
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA FROM 32N115W TO NEAR 24N110W. ADDITIONAL TROUGHING 
APPROACHING FROM THE NW IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING 
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

$$
LATTO