000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140921 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON SEP 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 91N FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO NEAR 09N91W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES INDICATE BROAD TROUGHING BETWEEN 90W AND 94W CORRELATING WELL WITH THE WAVE LOCATION ALONG WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N105W TO 11N106W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS COVERING THE WATERS FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE A BULGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOTED. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N113W TO 11N114W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO 09N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N97W TO 09N103W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N128W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 08N140W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 12N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1009 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 28N123W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N125W. THE 0548 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT-B SHOWED VERY WELL THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND WINDS OF 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE AROUND THE CENTER. SHIP CALL SIGH WFLG REPORTED COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT WITHIN AROUND 180 NM W OF THE LOW THE LOW CENTER. A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS STILL OBSERVED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE USING NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN AND COMPLETELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUE AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NE WATERS TO THE SE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA NEAR 23N120W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 19N113W. AS LINDA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS E EARLY THIS WEEK RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1009 MB IS NEAR 15N124W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 19N123W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SW OF THE CENTER COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W WHILE THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY NOTED TO THE NW OF THE CENTER IS DISSIPATING. WITHIN 150 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM NW QUADRANT OF LOW. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PERIODIC BURST OF CONVECTION COULD OCCUR NEAR THE LOW THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 14N110W. CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5- 10 KT. A NEW SET OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 115W LATE TODAY...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS BY LATE TUE. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THIS GULF AND TO THE E OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 21.5N109.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 109W-11W. TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. $$ GR