000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140232 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON SEP 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR BORDER NEAR 15N90W TO THE NE PACIFIC NEAR 08N89W MOVING W AT 10 KT. GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES INDICATE BROAD TROUGHING BETWEEN 88W AND 92W CORRELATING WELL WITH THE WAVE LOCATION ALONG WITH A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WATERS...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF SHORE BETWEEN 87W AND 97W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N104W TO 12N105W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS DEPICTED ON THE GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES BETWEEN 102W AND 109W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...WITH DEEPER CONVECTION NOTED JUST SE OF THE WAVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AS IS DESCRIBED BELOW. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N113W TO 11N114W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED BY GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES WITH TROUGHING EVIDENT BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N80W TO 10N99W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N110W TO 12N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 15N124W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W... WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 106W...AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1009 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 28N123W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N122W TO THE LOW TO 25N125W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH...WITH 5-10 KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE. SEAS ARE UP TO 5-7 FT NEAR THE LOW IN MIXED SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN AND COMPLETELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE LATEST PRES PATTERN INDICATES BROAD 1030 MB HIGH PRES WELL N- NW OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 41N148W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE-S THROUGH 32N137W TO 22N129W. MEANWHILE A WEAK 1012 MB HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NE WATERS TO THE SE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA NEAR 23N120W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 20N113W. AS LINDA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS E EARLY THIS WEEK RIDGING WILL FILL IN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW OF 1007 MB IS NEAR 15N124W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 19N123W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PERIODIC CONVECTION BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SSMI TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 14N110W WITH DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. SOME SLOW AND MINOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KT. A NEW SET OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS BREACHED THE EQUATOR IN THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE N REACHING TO 07N121W BY MON EVENING WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE SWELL WILL THEN DECAY SLIGHTLY TO 8-9 FT AND RETRACT TO 07N118W BY TUE EVENING. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW EARLY MON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY