000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN SEP 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 10N MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT COVERS THE AREA N OF 11N BETWEEN 87.5W AND 90W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING EL SALVADOR. THIS WAVE IS PRETTY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. IT COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N102W TO 12N101W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N111W TO 11N112W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13.5N108W TO 08N118W TO 06N125W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 06N125W TO 08N135W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 04N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W...FROM 04.5N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 116W AND 122W AND FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 134W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1009 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 27.5N123W. WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL ARE STILL NOTED WITHIN AROUND 150 NM NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE MOST TIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 12-24 HOURS. THEN...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY 36-48 HOURS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 42N145W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE NE WATERS AND TO THE SE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA NEAR 23.5N117W. THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS A RIDGE TO NEAR 21N112W. A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE N WATERS BY TUE AS THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA FINALLY WEAKENS. A WEAK LOW PRES OF 1010 MB IS NEAR 15N121.5W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 19N121W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED VERY WELL THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER. THE TROUGH COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW PRODUCT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 13.5N108W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5- 10 KT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS EXHIBITING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER 1008 MB LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR 09.5N94W AND WILL MOVE WESTWARD. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS BY SUN NIGHT...BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 115W BY MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 8 FT OR LESS BY TUE NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON INTO MON NIGHT. $$ GR