000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130228 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN SEP 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA NEAR 15N85W TO THE NE PACIFIC SW OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 07N85W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N101W TO 10N100W MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED SW OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N111W TO 12N112W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS AS WELL AS IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 07N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09.5N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N108.5W TO 13N112W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W...FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W...FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W...AND ALSO FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES OF 1009 MB...THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 28N123W. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS THE MOST TIGHT. THESE WINDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN MIXED SWELL IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE...HOWEVER THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 24 HOURS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1030 MB WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 42N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S-SE THROUGH 32N138W TO 16N128W. WEAK LOW PRES OF 1007 MB IS NEAR 15N121W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 18N121W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 15-20 KT WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WHERE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO PRESENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE W AT AROUND 10-15 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1006 MB LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 12.5N108.5W. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOW WITH SCATTERED TSTMS AS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE W AT AROUND 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A THIRD 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO THE E EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N95.5W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED 5-10 KT WINDS N OF THE LOW WITH 10-15 KT SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL 4-7 FT SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS BY SUN NIGHT...REACHING TO 05N123W BY MON EVENING WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO SWING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. $$ LEWITSKY