000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W N OF 08N. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO APPROXIMATELY 850 MB IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT...COINCIDING WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N100W TO 09N100W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO APPROXIMATELY 850 MB S OF 14N...WHICH ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS EXTENDS FROM 14N108W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N107W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO APPROXIMATELY 850 MB MAINLY W-NW OF THE WAVE AXIS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. DRY AIR IS DEPICTED IN THE REMAINDER WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS LACK OF CONVECTION. THE LAST TWO TROPICAL WAVES COULD MERGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE LOW PRES AREA PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N76W TO 08N90W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N WEST OF 130W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. ...DISCUSSION... A LOW PRES OF 1003 MB...REMNANT OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 27.2N120W. WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE STILL NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WITHIN 130 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT. SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ALSO COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW U.S. WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY. SWELLS FROM LINDA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS HIGH SURF THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SWELL EVENT MAY PROPAGATE NORTH TO THIS REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ATTACHED TO THE WESTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS SWELL EVENT. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 43N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY N OF 21N W OF 127W. FARTHER SOUTH...A PAIR OF 1009 MB WEAK LOWS ARE NOTED...ONE IS LOCATED NEAR 14N117W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO 16N116W AND THE OTHER IS NEAR 15N136W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 18N134W. THE LATTER LOW DISSIPATING IN 24 HOURS WHILE THE EASTERNMOST ONE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. $$ NR