000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110922 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W N OF 09N. THE WAVE IS LIKELY ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTION IS MINIMAL OVER THE EPAC WATERS. THE WAVE IS SLIGHTLY DEPICTED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N98W TO 09N97W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. THE WAVE IS REFLECTED IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS EXTENDS FROM 14N107W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN MAINLY NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TPW ANIMATION. THE WAVE IS ALSO WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND 850 VORTICITY ANALYSIS. THE LAST TWO TROPICAL WAVES COULD MERGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE LOW PRES AREA PERSISTING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 18N88W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N90W TO 10N100W TO 09N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W...AND FROM 07NTO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENTLY IDENTIFIED. ...DISCUSSION... A LOW PRES OF 1003 MB...REMNANT OF LINDA...IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N119.5W. WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE STILL NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT...HIGHEST IN THE NE QUADRANT. SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ALSO COVERS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W AND 124W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE SW U.S. WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. SWELLS FROM LINDA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL AS TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS HIGH SURF THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS SWELL EVENT. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 42N138W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTICULARLY N OF 20N W OF 128W. FARTHER SOUTH...A PAIR OF 1009 MB WEAK LOWS ARE NOTED...ONE IS LOCATED NEAR 15N117W AND THE OTHER IS NEAR 15N136W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEAR 19N135W. THE LATTER LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHILE DISSIPATING. SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 120W ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL WHILE CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION...WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. $$ GR