000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110230 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC FRI SEP 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS FROM 17N86W TO 09N86W MOVING W AT AROUND 25 KT. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS LESS CONCENTRATED. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 85W-89W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM 08N-11N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N97W TO 09N97W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 91W AND 98W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 93W-99W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED FROM 09N- 14N. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N105W TO 04N106W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 101W AND 107W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED FROM 06N-12N. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 08N105W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N119W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM SE OF THE AXIS E OF 92W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 122W...AND ALSO WITHIN 270 NM SE OF THE AXIS W OF 130W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS RELATIVELY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS EVENING AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO SAT. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRES...WHICH IS THE REMNANT OF LINDA...IS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N119W AT 1004 MB. WHILE THE LOW IS NO LONGER TROPICAL... WINDS OF 20-30 KT REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE ALSO STILL 8-12 FT WITH A LARGER SURROUNDING AREA OF MIXED SWELL OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 115W AND 128W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY SAT MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW U.S. WHICH COULD TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE SWELLS FROM LINDA CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD AND IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS HIGH SURF THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THESE SWELLS. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 43N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE S-SW TO JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL THIS EVENING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR WINDS BACKING TO N TO NE TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF LINDA. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 104W MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS COMBINED TO BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI MORNING AS THE WINDS RELAX A BIT. $$ LEWITSKY