000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102124 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LINDA NEAR 26.4N 119.0W AT 10/2100 UTC OR 226 NM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST /ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH LINDA...HOWEVER SOME OF LINDAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW U.S. WHICH COULD TRIGGER HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE SWELLS FROM LINDA CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD AND IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WELL TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND DANGEROUS HIGH SURF THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THESE SWELLS. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LINDA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 36 HOURS WITH REMNANT SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THEN AS WELL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE NE PACIFIC EXTENDS FROM 14N85W TO 08N85W MOVING W AT AROUND 20-25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 03N BETWEEN 78W AND 86W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 84W-89W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM 08N-11N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N95W TO 09N95W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 93W-98W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED FROM 08N-13N. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N104W TO 06N105W MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...AND ALSO WITHIN 180 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 09N102W TO 09N108W TO 07N112W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 101W AND 107W AND 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED FROM 06N-12N. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 07N90W TO 09N103W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N118W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 123W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 134W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO SAT. ...DISCUSSION... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE S- SW TO JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS NW AND W PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE W OF THE REMNANT LOW OF LINDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF LINDA. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 5-7 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR WINDS BACKING TO N TO NE TO THE W OF THE REMNANTS OF LINDA. FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 103W COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS COMBINED TO BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI MORNING AS THE WINDS RELAX A BIT. $$ LEWITSKY