000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100242 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU SEP 10 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM LINDA CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 117.7W AT 10/0300 UTC OR 217 NM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MOVING NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. LINDA IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THU EVENING...AND THEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY EARLY FRI...THEN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY LINDA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE U.S. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO STILL SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THERE TONIGHT AS LINDA MOVES NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N78W TO 05N80W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 420 NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 540 NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 78W-81W WHILE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FROM 06N-09N. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N91W TO 06N91W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240-360 NM W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 13N. 700 MB TROUGHING IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 87W-93W WHILE 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FROM 06N-10N. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRES TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE LATER THIS WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IS INCREASING TO THE S-SW OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE WINDS ARE NOW BLOWING 20 KT...AND SEAS HAVE THUS BEEN BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BY 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS WHEN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N80W TO 08N96W TO 12N107W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N119W TO 11N130W TO 09N140W. NO ITCZ AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 110W AND 119W... AND ALSO WITHIN 240-360 NM SE OF AXIS W OF 119W. LINDA HAS MOVED SUFFICIENTLY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TROPICS AND COMPLETELY SEVERED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH HERE HAS BEGUN TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE CONVECTION DESCRIBED ABOVE HAS BECOME VERY ACTIVE. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE NEAR AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 100W THROUGH THU. ...DISCUSSION... MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF OF LINDA...GENERATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N140W. SEAS ACROSS NW PORTIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL AND WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY