000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC WED SEP 09 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.               
   
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE LINDA CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 115.6W AT 09/0300 UTC OR 317 
NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING NW AT 11 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25   
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM IN THE E SEMICIRCLE...150 NM IN THE 
SW QUADRANT AND 210 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 120 NM AND 270 NM IN THE NE 
SEMICIRCLE. OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ADDITIONAL OUTER MOISTURE 
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE W SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTALES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY LINDA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD   
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY IMPACTING THE U.S. SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO 
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

LINDA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND 
HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AS IT IS FORECAST 
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN TO 
A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. A LARGE SWATH OF 20-33 
KT WINDS EXTENDS WELL AWAY FROM LINDA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE 
QUADRANT WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N 
TO 27N BETWEEN 105W AND 123W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
S OF 25N...AND ALSO FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 123W AND 132W.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N94W TO  
10N104W THEN RESUMES FROM 14N120W TO 10N130W TO 08N140W. NO ITCZ 
AXIS IS PRESENT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 240 NM SW OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 94W...AND FROM 08N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM SW OF A LINE FROM 09N100W TO 17N106W...AND ALSO 
WITHIN 240 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 15N114W TO 07N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF OF LINDA...GENERATED BY ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW TO THE SE OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N139W. 
CORRESPONDING SEAS ACROSS NW PORTIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING     
5-8 FT IN MIXED NE SWELL AND WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATE 
TONIGHT.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF  
THE AREA AND CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE JUST S 
OF THE EQUATOR AND SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS...UP TO 8 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY